Fresh Wata Field · Referee C. Kawana-Waugh · Analysis updated 05:44 UTC
Tahiti vs Fiji Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Tahiti and 3.65 for Fiji, a combined total of 4.85. That distribution gives Fiji the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fiji win
81.4% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 3.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tahiti home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fiji to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 81%, against 8% / 11% / 81% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Tahiti and 3.65 for Fiji, a combined 4.85 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 85% and both teams to score at 67%, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
19%
Double chance 12
90%
Double chance X2
92%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–37.6%
- 1–46.9%
- 0–36.3%
- 1–26.3%
- 0–45.8%
Recent form
Tahiti
- 2025-03-21T02:00:00.000Z · A vs New Caledonia · 0-3 (L)
- 2024-11-18T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Vanuatu · 2-0 (W)
- 2024-11-15T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Samoa · 3-0 (W)
- 2024-10-11T02:00:00.000Z · A vs New Zealand · 0-3 (L)
- 2024-06-30T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiji · 2-1 (W)
Fiji
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
OFC Nations Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Zealand | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 12 |
| 2 | Fiji | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 9 |
| 3 | Tahiti | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 7 |
| 4 | Vanuatu | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 6 |
| 5 | Samoa | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 6 |
| 6 | Papua New Guinea | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 7 | Cook Islands | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Tonga | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 9 | Solomon Islands | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fiji win, at 81.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.
A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.