Go Media Stadium · Referee M. Lacour · Analysis updated 03:57 UTC
Tahiti vs Vanuatu Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.00 expected goals for Tahiti and 2.00 for Vanuatu, a combined total of 5.00. That distribution gives Tahiti the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 82% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tahiti win
58.4% probability
Expected goals
3.00 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tahiti home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tahiti to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 17% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.00 goals for Tahiti and 2.00 for Vanuatu, a combined 5.00 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 87% and both teams to score at 82%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 6%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–16.1%
- 2–26.1%
- 3–16.1%
- 3–26.1%
- 4–14.5%
Recent form
Tahiti
- 2025-03-21T02:00:00.000Z · A vs New Caledonia · 0-3 (L)
- 2024-11-18T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Vanuatu · 2-0 (W)
- 2024-11-15T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Samoa · 3-0 (W)
- 2024-10-11T02:00:00.000Z · A vs New Zealand · 0-3 (L)
- 2024-06-30T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiji · 2-1 (W)
Vanuatu
Head-to-head
- 2024-11-18T03:00:00.000Z · Tahiti 2-0 Vanuatu (World Cup - Qualification Oceania)
World Cup - Qualification Oceania table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Zealand | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 15 |
| 2 | New Caledonia | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 3 | Tahiti | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 4 | Samoa | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -11 | 6 |
| 5 | Fiji | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -6 | 5 |
| 6 | Tonga | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Solomon Islands | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | Vanuatu | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 3 |
| 9 | Papua New Guinea | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 10 | Cook Islands | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 11 | American Samoa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tahiti win, at 58.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 82% and over 2.5 goals at 87%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.