Taishan · Referee W. Sun · Analysis updated 11:06 UTC
Tai'an Tiankuang vs Qingdao Red Lions Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Tai'an Tiankuang and 0.81 for Qingdao Red Lions, a combined total of 2.01. That distribution gives Tai'an Tiankuang the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tai'an Tiankuang win
45.4% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 0.81
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tai'an Tiankuang home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Qingdao Red Lions away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tai'an Tiankuang to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 30% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Tai'an Tiankuang and 0.81 for Qingdao Red Lions, a combined 2.01 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.1%
- 0–013.4%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–110.8%
- 2–09.7%
Recent form
Tai'an Tiankuang
- 2026-10-07T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Shangyu Pterosaur · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:35:00.000Z · A vs Chengdu Rongcheng II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Wuhan Three Towns II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-22T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Shanghai Second · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-15T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Dalian Kewei · 0-1 (L)
Qingdao Red Lions
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Shangyu Pterosaur · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Xiamen Feilu · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Shanghai Port II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Nantong Haimen Codion · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-15T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Xi'an Ronghai · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shanghai Port II | 28 | 15 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 50 |
| 2 | Xi'an Ronghai | 28 | 15 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 50 |
| 3 | Guizhou Zhucheng | 28 | 15 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 49 |
| 4 | Dalian Kewei | 28 | 12 | 13 | 3 | 11 | 49 |
| 5 | Shandong Taishan II | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 47 |
| 6 | Shenzhen 2028 | 28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 42 |
| 7 | Langfang Glory City | 28 | 9 | 14 | 5 | -4 | 41 |
| 8 | Nantong Haimen Codion | 28 | 9 | 13 | 6 | 11 | 40 |
| 9 | Hubei Chufeng Heli | 28 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 40 |
| 10 | Tai'an Tiankuang | 28 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 40 |
| 11 | Dalian Yingbo B | 28 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 39 |
| 12 | Jiangxi Liansheng | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 39 |
| 13 | Xiamen Feilu | 28 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 37 |
| 14 | Guangdong Mingtu | 28 | 7 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 36 |
| 15 | Rizhao Yuqi | 28 | 6 | 16 | 6 | -3 | 34 |
| 16 | Qingdao Red Lions | 28 | 7 | 11 | 10 | -2 | 32 |
| 17 | Changchun Xidu | 28 | 6 | 14 | 8 | -10 | 32 |
| 18 | Shangyu Pterosaur | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | -17 | 31 |
| 19 | Guangzhou Dandelion | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | -7 | 30 |
| 20 | Wuhan Three Towns II | 28 | 6 | 9 | 13 | -7 | 27 |
| 21 | Yichun Grand Tiger | 28 | 5 | 12 | 11 | -14 | 27 |
| 22 | Chengdu Rongcheng II | 28 | 5 | 10 | 13 | -12 | 25 |
| 23 | BIT | 28 | 5 | 10 | 13 | -21 | 25 |
| 24 | Shanghai Second | 28 | 2 | 13 | 13 | -20 | 19 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tai'an Tiankuang win, at 45.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.