Hisor Central Stadium · Referee A. Nadjafaliev · Analysis updated 14:27 UTC
Tajikistan vs India Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Tajikistan and 1.14 for India, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Tajikistan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tajikistan win
54.1% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tajikistan home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
India away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tajikistan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 23% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Tajikistan and 1.14 for India, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–08.6%
- 3–16.1%
Recent form
Tajikistan
- 2026-09-28T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Palestine · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Azerbaijan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs India · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs India · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-03-31T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Philippines · 1-1 (D)
India
- 2026-06-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tajikistan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tajikistan · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-30T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Zimbabwe · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-27T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Jamaica · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-03-31T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Hong Kong · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tajikistan win, at 54.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.