Hisor Central Stadium · Analysis updated 14:35 UTC
Tajikistan vs Iran Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Tajikistan and 2.00 for Iran, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Iran the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Iran win
60.6% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tajikistan home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Iran away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Iran to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 18% / 21% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Tajikistan and 2.00 for Iran, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–110.0%
- 0–210.0%
- 1–110.0%
- 1–210.0%
- 0–36.6%
Recent form
Tajikistan
- 2026-09-28T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Palestine · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Azerbaijan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs India · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs India · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-03-31T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Philippines · 1-1 (D)
Iran
- 2026-06-27T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Egypt · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-21T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Belgium · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-16T01:00:00.000Z · H vs New Zealand · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-06-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Mali · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Gambia · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
CAFA Nations Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uzbekistan | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 2 | Oman | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 3 | Iran | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | India | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 5 |
| 5 | Tajikistan | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Turkmenistan | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 7 | Afghanistan | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 8 | Kyrgyzstan | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Iran win, at 60.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.