· Analysis updated 06:45 UTC
Takeley vs Aylesbury United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Takeley and 1.76 for Aylesbury United, a combined total of 3.52. That distribution gives Takeley the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
61.3% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.76
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Takeley home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aylesbury United away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Takeley to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 22% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Takeley and 1.76 for Aylesbury United, a combined 3.52 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.2%
- 2–18.1%
- 1–28.0%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–05.2%
Recent form
Takeley
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hitchin Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Aylesbury United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs London Lions · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-07T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Harlow Town · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wroxham · 2-0 (W)
Aylesbury United
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Takeley · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Sittingbourne · 6-4 (W)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hertford Town · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:28.000Z · A vs Hadley · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:28.000Z · H vs Stotfold · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.