· Analysis updated 10:45 UTC
Takeley vs Hitchin Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Takeley and 1.03 for Hitchin Town, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Takeley the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Takeley win
52.4% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Takeley home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hitchin Town away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Takeley to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 24% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Takeley and 1.03 for Hitchin Town, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 1–011.3%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–09.4%
- 0–16.9%
Recent form
Takeley
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hitchin Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Aylesbury United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs London Lions · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-07T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Harlow Town · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wroxham · 2-0 (W)
Hitchin Town
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Stamford · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Halesowen Town · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Peterborough Sports · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Leamington · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Leighton Town · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Takeley win, at 52.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.