· Analysis updated 02:29 UTC
Talent Warszawa U19 vs Jagiellonia U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Talent Warszawa U19 and 1.63 for Jagiellonia U19, a combined total of 3.32. That distribution gives Talent Warszawa U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.0% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jagiellonia U19 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Talent Warszawa U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 23% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Talent Warszawa U19 and 1.63 for Jagiellonia U19, a combined 3.32 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 65% and both teams to score at 66%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–28.1%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–06.1%
Recent form
Talent Warszawa U19
- 2026-08-16T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Warszawa U19 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-08T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Arkonia U19 · 1-2 (L)
Jagiellonia U19
- 2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Arkonia U19 · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-10-17T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Stal Rzeszów U19 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-14T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Lech Poznań U19 · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-10-09T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Górnik Zabrze U19 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Talent Warszawa U19 · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · Talent Warszawa U19 0-2 Jagiellonia U19 (Central Youth League)
Central Youth League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Legia Warszawa U19 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 25 |
| 2 | Miedź Legnica U19 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 25 |
| 3 | Śląsk Wrocław U19 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 4 | Wisła Kraków U19 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 20 |
| 5 | Górnik Zabrze U19 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 18 |
| 6 | Zagłębie Lubin U19 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 18 |
| 7 | Jagiellonia U19 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 18 |
| 8 | Arkonia U19 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 17 |
| 9 | Raków Częstochowa U19 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 16 |
| 10 | Lech Poznań U19 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 16 |
| 11 | Talent Warszawa U19 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | -5 | 15 |
| 12 | Polonia Warszawa U19 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 14 |
| 13 | Stal Rzeszów U19 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 14 |
| 14 | Korona Kielce U19 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -11 | 10 |
| 15 | Arka Gdynia U19 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 9 |
| 16 | Escola Varsovia U19 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.