Argentina · Liga Profesional Argentina · Apertura - Round of 1619:30

0 – 1

Saturday, 9 May 2026

Mario Alberto Kempes · Referee Dario Herrera, Argentina · Analysis updated 06:07 UTC

Talleres Cordoba vs Belgrano Cordoba Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Talleres Cordoba and 0.77 for Belgrano Cordoba, a combined total of 1.80. That distribution gives Talleres Cordoba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

73.1% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.03 – 0.77

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Talleres Cordoba win41%

Draw33%

Belgrano Cordoba win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

68%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals54%

Over 2.5 goals27%

Over 3.5 goals11%

Both teams to score35%

Correct score

1–016.9%
0–016.5%
1–113.1%
0–112.8%
2–08.7%

Why the model likes this

Talleres Cordoba home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Belgrano Cordoba away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Talleres Cordoba to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 33% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Talleres Cordoba and 0.77 for Belgrano Cordoba, a combined 1.80 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Recent form

Talleres Cordoba

2026-08-12T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Lanus · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-03T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Platense · 4-0 (W)
2026-07-30T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Velez Sarsfield · 1-3 (L)
2026-07-25T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Newells Old Boys · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-20T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Tucuman · 0-3 (L)

Belgrano Cordoba

2026-08-15T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Independ. Rivadavia · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-10T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Banfield · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-06T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Tigre · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-01T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Argentinos JRS · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-23T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Rosario Central · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Estudiantes L.P.	16	9	4	3	12	31
2	Boca Juniors	16	8	6	2	13	30
3	Velez Sarsfield	16	7	7	2	6	28
4	Talleres Cordoba	16	7	5	4	4	26
5	Independiente	16	6	6	4	4	24
6	Lanus	16	6	6	4	3	24
7	San Lorenzo	16	5	7	4	0	22
8	Union Santa Fe	16	5	6	5	4	21
9	Instituto Cordoba	16	6	3	7	0	21
10	Defensa Y Justicia	16	4	7	5	-3	19
11	Gimnasia M.	16	5	4	7	-8	19
12	Platense	16	3	7	6	-5	16
13	Central Cordoba de Santiago	16	4	4	8	-10	16
14	Newells Old Boys	16	3	6	7	-12	15
15	Deportivo Riestra	16	1	8	7	-7	11
1	Independ. Rivadavia	16	10	4	2	14	34
2	River Plate	16	9	2	5	10	29
3	Argentinos JRS	16	8	5	3	4	29
4	Rosario Central	16	8	4	4	4	28
5	Belgrano Cordoba	16	7	5	4	4	26
6	Gimnasia L.P.	16	8	2	6	0	26
7	Huracan	16	5	7	4	4	22
8	Racing Club	16	5	6	5	2	21
9	Barracas Central	16	5	6	5	0	21
10	Tigre	16	4	8	4	3	20
11	Sarmiento Junin	16	6	1	9	-7	19
12	Banfield	16	5	3	8	-2	18
13	Atletico Tucuman	16	3	5	8	-5	14
14	Aldosivi	16	0	8	8	-13	8
15	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	16	1	2	13	-19	5
1	Instituto Cordoba	5	4	0	1	3	12
2	Velez Sarsfield	4	3	1	0	4	10
3	Newells Old Boys	5	2	1	2	1	7
4	Defensa Y Justicia	4	2	1	1	-1	7
5	Estudiantes L.P.	5	2	0	3	2	6
6	Lanus	4	2	0	2	2	6
7	Deportivo Riestra	5	2	0	3	1	6
8	Independiente	4	2	0	2	1	6
9	Gimnasia M.	4	2	0	2	1	6
10	Boca Juniors	5	1	3	1	-2	6
11	Central Cordoba de Santiago	5	2	0	3	-2	6
12	San Lorenzo	5	2	0	3	-2	6
13	Platense	5	1	2	2	-4	5
14	Union Santa Fe	5	1	1	3	-3	4
15	Talleres Cordoba	4	1	0	3	-2	3
1	Argentinos JRS	5	4	0	1	4	12
2	Belgrano Cordoba	5	3	1	1	4	10
3	Rosario Central	5	3	1	1	2	10
4	Sarmiento Junin	5	3	0	2	2	9
5	Barracas Central	5	3	0	2	0	9
6	Gimnasia L.P.	5	3	0	2	-1	9
7	Tigre	5	2	2	1	2	8
8	Huracan	5	2	1	2	0	7
9	Independ. Rivadavia	5	2	1	2	-1	7
10	Banfield	5	2	1	2	-1	7
11	Atletico Tucuman	4	1	2	1	1	5
12	Racing Club	5	1	1	3	-3	4
13	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	4	1	1	2	-3	4
14	River Plate	5	1	0	4	-2	3
15	Aldosivi	5	0	2	3	-3	2

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.