Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes · Referee Juan Pafundi · Analysis updated 09:29 UTC
Talleres Cordoba vs Defensa Y Justicia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Talleres Cordoba and 0.99 for Defensa Y Justicia, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Talleres Cordoba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.0% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Talleres Cordoba home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Defensa Y Justicia away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Talleres Cordoba to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 29% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Talleres Cordoba and 0.99 for Defensa Y Justicia, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.5%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–011.6%
- 0–111.5%
- 2–07.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.91 (model 56.9% vs market 48.9%, edge +8.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.91 | 48.9% | 56.9% | 1.76 | +8.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.35 | 69.9% | 70.6% | 1.42 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Away | 3.00 | 30.6% | 31.0% | 3.23 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.57 | 60.1% | 60.4% | 1.66 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 29.6% | 29.4% | 3.40 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.30 | 39.9% | 39.6% | 2.53 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.35 | 69.9% | 69.0% | 1.45 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.83 | 51.1% | 43.1% | 2.32 | -8.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Talleres Cordoba
- 2026-10-17T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Boca Juniors · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-12T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Independiente · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Belgrano Cordoba · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Instituto Cordoba · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Union Santa Fe · 2-1 (W)
Defensa Y Justicia
- 2026-10-24T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Talleres Cordoba · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Instituto Cordoba · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T00:45:00.000Z · A vs Union Santa Fe · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T17:45:00.000Z · H vs San Lorenzo · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Central Cordoba de Santiago · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.