Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes · Referee Sebastian Zunino · Analysis updated 19:45 UTC
Talleres Cordoba vs Independiente Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Talleres Cordoba and 0.80 for Independiente, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives Talleres Cordoba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
73.6% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Talleres Cordoba home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Independiente away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.5%
- 0–015.0%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–112.0%
- 2–09.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.80 (model 63.3% vs market 51.5%, edge +11.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.80 | 51.5% | 63.3% | 1.58 | +11.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.30 | 72.5% | 73.6% | 1.36 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.15 | 42.1% | 42.3% | 2.36 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.90 | 31.2% | 31.3% | 3.19 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 3.40 | 26.6% | 26.4% | 3.79 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.62 | 58.2% | 57.7% | 1.73 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.36 | 69.3% | 68.7% | 1.46 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.91 | 48.5% | 36.7% | 2.72 | -11.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Talleres Cordoba
- 2026-10-12T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Independiente · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Belgrano Cordoba · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Instituto Cordoba · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Union Santa Fe · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T22:00:00.000Z · A vs San Lorenzo · 0-1 (L)
Independiente
- 2026-10-12T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Talleres Cordoba · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-02T22:15:00.000Z · H vs Instituto Cordoba · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T19:45:00.000Z · A vs Union Santa Fe · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T22:15:00.000Z · H vs San Lorenzo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Central Cordoba de Santiago · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-12T00:30:00.000Z · Talleres Cordoba 0-0 Independiente (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2026-03-21T23:00:00.000Z · Talleres Cordoba 2-1 Independiente (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-07-21T00:00:00.000Z · Talleres Cordoba 2-1 Independiente (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-01-29T20:00:00.000Z · Talleres Cordoba 2-3 Independiente (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-05-11T20:30:00.000Z · Talleres Cordoba 3-1 Independiente (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-04-15T23:00:00.000Z · Talleres Cordoba 2-2 Independiente (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
- 2023-11-26T21:00:00.000Z · Talleres Cordoba 3-2 Independiente (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
- 2023-01-27T22:15:00.000Z · Talleres Cordoba 0-1 Independiente (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2022-09-28T19:00:00.000Z · Talleres Cordoba 0-0 Independiente (Copa Argentina)
- 2022-06-11T00:30:00.000Z · Talleres Cordoba 0-1 Independiente (Liga Profesional Argentina)
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.