Tallinna Kalev II vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for Tallinna Kalev II and 3.01 for Parnu JK Vaprus U21, a combined total of 5.12. That distribution gives Parnu JK Vaprus U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 88% for over 2.5 goals and 83% for both teams to score, with 2–3 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win

56.7% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.10 – 3.01

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Tallinna Kalev II home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Parnu JK Vaprus U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 26% / 17% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.10 goals for Tallinna Kalev II and 3.01 for Parnu JK Vaprus U21, a combined 5.12 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Tallinna Kalev II win26%

Draw17%

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win57%

Double chance 1X

43%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals96%

Over 2.5 goals88%

Over 3.5 goals75%

Both teams to score83%

Correct score

2–36.0%
2–26.0%
1–35.7%
1–25.7%
2–44.6%

Recent form

Tallinna Kalev II

2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21 · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Tulevik · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Narva U21 · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Johvi Phoenix · 3-4 (L)
2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs JK Tabasalu · 4-1 (W)

Parnu JK Vaprus U21

2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Tartu Kalev · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Johvi Phoenix · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-06T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Tallinna Kalev II · 7-0 (W)
2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Legion · 5-1 (W)
2026-08-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs JK Tabasalu · 6-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Esiliiga B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Narva U21	34	23	4	7	39	73
2	Levadia U19	33	21	2	10	30	65
3	Phoenix	34	18	3	13	0	57
4	Luunja	33	17	5	11	25	56
5	Tulevik	34	16	5	13	18	53
6	Parnu JK Vaprus U21	33	15	5	13	33	50
7	Tartu Kalev	34	16	2	16	13	50
8	JK Tabasalu	34	11	4	19	-38	37
9	Tallinna Kalev II	33	8	6	19	-17	30
10	Legion	34	3	4	27	-103	13

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win, at 56.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–3.

It puts both teams scoring at 83% and over 2.5 goals at 88%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.