Tallinna Kalev vs Maardu Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.12 expected goals for Tallinna Kalev and 1.55 for Maardu, a combined total of 3.67. That distribution gives Tallinna Kalev the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Tallinna Kalev win

50.9% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.12 – 1.55

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Tallinna Kalev home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Maardu away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tallinna Kalev to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 21% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.12 goals for Tallinna Kalev and 1.55 for Maardu, a combined 3.67 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Tallinna Kalev win51%

Draw21%

Maardu win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Over 3.5 goals50%

Both teams to score69%

Correct score

2–18.9%
1–18.4%
2–26.9%
1–26.5%
3–16.3%

Recent form

Tallinna Kalev

2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Viimsi · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Elva · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-18T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Flora II · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Maardu · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-10T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Nõmme United II · 1-2 (L)

Maardu

2026-08-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tallinna Kalev · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-20T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Elva · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Tallinn · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-08T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Viimsi · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Nõmme Kalju II · 4-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Esiliiga A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tartu Welco	33	22	5	6	54	71
2	Viimsi	33	17	6	10	29	57
3	FCI Levadia II	32	16	2	14	8	50
4	Elva	32	14	7	11	-1	49
5	Flora II	31	14	6	11	18	48
6	Maardu	30	12	7	11	-12	43
7	Tallinna Kalev	31	10	7	14	-5	37
8	Nõmme United II	32	10	6	16	-14	36
9	FC Tallinn	33	9	8	16	-35	35
10	Nõmme Kalju II	33	6	6	21	-42	24

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Tallinna Kalev win, at 50.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.