Tallinna Kalev vs Tartu Welco Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Tallinna Kalev and 2.20 for Tartu Welco, a combined total of 3.85. That distribution gives Tartu Welco the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Tartu Welco win

50.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.65 – 2.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Tallinna Kalev home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tartu Welco away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 5 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Tallinna Kalev win29%

Draw20%

Tartu Welco win51%

Double chance 1X

50%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

71%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals74%

Over 3.5 goals54%

Both teams to score72%

Correct score

1–28.5%
1–17.7%
2–27.0%
2–16.4%
1–36.2%

Recent form

Tallinna Kalev

2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Viimsi · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Elva · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-18T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Flora II · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Maardu · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-10T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Nõmme United II · 1-2 (L)

Tartu Welco

2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Flora II · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kose · 8-0 (W)
2026-08-08T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Elva · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Nõmme United II · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rumori Calcio II · 12-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-05-09T14:00:00.000Z · Tallinna Kalev 2-0 Tartu Welco (Esiliiga A)
2026-03-05T17:00:00.000Z · Tallinna Kalev 0-3 Tartu Welco (Esiliiga A)
2023-07-15T16:00:00.000Z · Tallinna Kalev 4-0 Tartu Welco (Cup)
2021-10-31T17:00:00.000Z · Tallinna Kalev 3-2 Tartu Welco (Esiliiga A)
2021-08-12T16:00:00.000Z · Tallinna Kalev 1-0 Tartu Welco (Esiliiga A)

Esiliiga A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tartu Welco	33	22	5	6	54	71
2	Viimsi	33	17	6	10	29	57
3	FCI Levadia II	32	16	2	14	8	50
4	Elva	32	14	7	11	-1	49
5	Flora II	31	14	6	11	18	48
6	Maardu	30	12	7	11	-12	43
7	Tallinna Kalev	31	10	7	14	-5	37
8	Nõmme United II	32	10	6	16	-14	36
9	FC Tallinn	33	9	8	16	-35	35
10	Nõmme Kalju II	33	6	6	21	-42	24

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Tartu Welco win, at 50.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.