Tamaraceite vs Tenisca Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Tamaraceite and 0.98 for Tenisca, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Tamaraceite the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Tamaraceite win

59.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.93 – 0.98

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Tamaraceite home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Tenisca away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tamaraceite to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 22% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.93 goals for Tamaraceite and 0.98 for Tenisca, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Tamaraceite win60%

Draw22%

Tenisca win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

40%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–010.6%
1–110.3%
2–010.2%
2–19.9%
3–06.5%

Recent form

Tamaraceite

2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Mijas Las Lagunas · 2-6 (L)
2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Recreativo Huelva · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sanluqueño · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Sevilla Atletico · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-04T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Tenerife · 2-3 (L)

Tenisca

2026-05-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Tamaraceite · 1-5 (L)
2026-05-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Herbania · 4-0 (W)
2026-04-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Las Palmas III · 1-2 (L)
2026-04-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Panadería Pulido · 1-1 (D)
2026-04-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Telde · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-05-10T11:00:00.000Z · Tamaraceite 5-1 Tenisca (Tercera División RFEF - Group 12)
2026-01-10T12:00:00.000Z · Tamaraceite 0-1 Tenisca (Tercera División RFEF - Group 12)
2019-11-09T12:00:00.000Z · Tamaraceite 1-3 Tenisca (Tercera División RFEF - Group 12)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	UD San Fernando	8	6	1	1	15	19
2	Panadería Pulido	8	5	2	1	11	17
3	San Miguel	8	5	1	2	10	16
4	Real Unión de Tenerife	8	5	1	2	5	16
5	Tenerife C	8	4	2	2	4	14
6	Marino	8	4	1	3	6	13
7	Las Palmas III	8	3	4	1	6	13
8	Unión Sur Yaiza	8	4	1	3	2	13
9	Mensajero	8	3	3	2	-3	12
10	Los Llanos	8	3	1	4	1	10
11	San Bartolomé	8	2	4	2	0	10
12	Lanzarote	8	2	4	2	-2	10
13	Anaza	8	2	3	3	-4	9
14	Villa Santa Brígida	8	2	3	3	-4	9
15	Estrella	8	2	1	5	-7	7
16	Playas Sotavento	8	0	4	4	-15	4
17	Laguna de Duero	8	0	2	6	-11	2
18	Villaverde Norte	8	0	2	6	-14	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Tamaraceite win, at 59.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.