Tamme Stadium · Analysis updated 08:10 UTC
Tammeka vs Laagri Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Tammeka and 1.58 for Laagri, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Laagri the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Laagri win
47.7% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tammeka home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Laagri away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Laagri to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 27% / 25% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for Tammeka and 1.58 for Laagri, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 0–110.6%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–28.3%
- 1–07.6%
Recent form
Tammeka
- 2026-10-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Viimsi · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Kalju Nomme · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Levadia Tallinn · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kuressaare · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Paide · 0-2 (L)
Laagri
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Tallinn · 10-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Kuressaare · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Paide · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Vaprus · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tammeka · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Meistriliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 32 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 65 | 81 |
| 2 | Flora Tallinn | 33 | 19 | 1 | 13 | 16 | 58 |
| 3 | Paide | 32 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 57 |
| 4 | Kalju Nomme | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 51 |
| 5 | Tammeka | 32 | 15 | 2 | 15 | -9 | 47 |
| 6 | Laagri | 33 | 15 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 47 |
| 7 | Vaprus | 32 | 10 | 6 | 16 | -20 | 36 |
| 8 | Kuressaare | 32 | 10 | 5 | 17 | -17 | 35 |
| 9 | Nõmme United | 32 | 10 | 1 | 21 | -24 | 31 |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | -45 | 20 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Laagri win, at 47.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.