Tammeka vs Vaprus Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.20 expected goals for Tammeka and 1.33 for Vaprus, a combined total of 3.53. That distribution gives Tammeka the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Tammeka win

57.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.20 – 1.33

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Tammeka home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vaprus away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Tammeka win57%

Draw20%

Vaprus win23%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

43%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals47%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

2–19.4%
1–18.6%
2–07.1%
3–16.9%
1–06.5%

Recent form

Tammeka

2026-10-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Trans Narva · 5-1 (W)
2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Flora Tallinn · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Paide · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nõmme United · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Viimsi · 4-1 (W)

Vaprus

2026-10-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Nõmme United · 2-4 (L)
2026-10-18T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Laagri · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kalju Nomme · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Trans Narva · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Flora Tallinn · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-07-11T11:30:00.000Z · Tammeka 1-5 Vaprus (Meistriliiga)
2026-06-13T14:00:00.000Z · Tammeka 0-0 Vaprus (Meistriliiga)
2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · Tammeka 0-0 Vaprus (Meistriliiga)
2025-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · Tammeka 1-4 Vaprus (Meistriliiga)
2025-08-15T16:30:00.000Z · Tammeka 1-8 Vaprus (Meistriliiga)
2025-05-17T11:30:00.000Z · Tammeka 1-2 Vaprus (Meistriliiga)
2025-03-29T10:30:00.000Z · Tammeka 0-5 Vaprus (Meistriliiga)
2025-02-16T16:00:00.000Z · Tammeka 6-1 Vaprus (Friendlies Clubs)
2024-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · Tammeka 2-2 Vaprus (Meistriliiga)
2024-08-02T16:30:00.000Z · Tammeka 0-1 Vaprus (Meistriliiga)

Meistriliiga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	33	26	6	1	66	84
2	Paide	33	18	6	9	14	60
3	Flora Tallinn	34	19	1	14	15	58
4	Kalju Nomme	33	16	6	11	22	54
5	Tammeka	33	16	2	15	-5	50
6	Laagri	34	15	2	17	-1	47
7	Vaprus	33	10	6	17	-22	36
8	Kuressaare	33	10	5	18	-18	35
9	Nõmme United	33	11	1	21	-22	34
10	Trans Narva	33	5	5	23	-49	20

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Tammeka win, at 57.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.