Nike Arena · Referee K. Siilak · Analysis updated 15:47 UTC
Tamper vs Kalju Nomme Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Tamper and 4.50 for Kalju Nomme, a combined total of 6.45. That distribution gives Kalju Nomme the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 92% for over 2.5 goals and 81% for both teams to score, with 1–4 the single most likely scoreline at 5%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kalju Nomme win
78.4% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 4.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tamper home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Kalju Nomme away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kalju Nomme to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 78%, against 11% / 10% / 78% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Tamper and 4.50 for Kalju Nomme, a combined 6.45 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
22%
Double chance 12
90%
Double chance X2
89%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–45.3%
- 2–45.1%
- 1–54.7%
- 1–34.7%
- 2–54.6%
Recent form
Tamper
- 2026-08-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Laagri · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs JK Tabasalu · 2-0 (W)
- 2025-09-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Viimsi · 1-4 (L)
- 2025-07-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rumori Calcio · 4-2 (W)
- 2024-10-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Kalju Nomme · 0-9 (L)
Kalju Nomme
- 2026-10-17T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Nõmme United · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Vaprus · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Laagri · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Tammeka · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Trans Narva · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kalju Nomme win, at 78.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–4.
It puts both teams scoring at 81% and over 2.5 goals at 92%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.