Kauppi 3 - Artificial grass · Analysis updated 13:17 UTC
Tampere United vs TPV Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Tampere United and 1.40 for TPV, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives Tampere United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tampere United win
61.4% probability
Expected goals
2.50 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tampere United home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
TPV away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.9%
- 3–17.4%
- 1–17.1%
- 2–06.3%
- 2–26.2%
Recent form
Tampere United
- 2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs JJK · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SalPa · 4-6 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs PKKU · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · A vs OLS · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Rops · 4-0 (W)
TPV
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs FC jazz · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Turku II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs KuPS Akatemia · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · H vs PKKU · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Turku II · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · Tampere United 1-1 TPV (Ykkönen)
- 2026-05-29T16:00:00.000Z · Tampere United 3-0 TPV (Ykkönen)
- 2026-04-15T16:15:00.000Z · Tampere United 2-0 TPV (Suomen Cup)
- 2026-02-22T12:45:00.000Z · Tampere United 2-4 TPV (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · Tampere United 5-1 TPV (Kakkonen - Play-offs)
- 2024-07-02T15:30:00.000Z · Tampere United 0-0 TPV (Kakkonen - Lohko B)
- 2024-04-30T16:00:00.000Z · Tampere United 1-2 TPV (Kakkonen - Lohko B)
- 2023-03-11T10:45:00.000Z · Tampere United 3-0 TPV (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2020-01-26T14:30:00.000Z · Tampere United 0-3 TPV (Kakkosen Cup)
- 2018-08-16T15:30:00.000Z · Tampere United 0-1 TPV (Kakkonen - Lohko C)
Ykkönen table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampere United | 25 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 32 | 50 |
| 2 | Rops | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 15 | 44 |
| 3 | SalPa | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 42 |
| 4 | OLS | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 41 |
| 5 | VJS | 25 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 40 |
| 6 | FC jazz | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 39 |
| 7 | PKKU | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 38 |
| 8 | JJK | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 2 | 31 |
| 9 | TPV | 25 | 7 | 6 | 12 | -13 | 27 |
| 10 | Inter Turku II | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | -14 | 26 |
| 11 | KPV-j | 25 | 5 | 3 | 17 | -48 | 18 |
| 12 | KuPS Akatemia | 25 | 3 | 6 | 16 | -20 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tampere United win, at 61.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.