Tampines Stadium · Analysis updated 02:45 UTC
Tampines Rovers vs Arema FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.04 expected goals for Tampines Rovers and 1.31 for Arema FC, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Arema FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.6% probability
Expected goals
1.04 – 1.31
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tampines Rovers home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Arema FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arema FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 30% / 28% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.04 goals for Tampines Rovers and 1.31 for Arema FC, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.0%
- 0–112.5%
- 1–09.9%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–28.5%
Recent form
Tampines Rovers
- 2026-09-17T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Shanghai Shenhua · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Balestier Khalsa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-31T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Persib Bandung · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-28T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Arema FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-25T08:30:00.000Z · A vs DPMM FC Brunei · 2-2 (D)
Arema FC
- 2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Persija · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-17T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Garudayaksa · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Bhayangkara FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-18T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Persik Kediri · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T08:30:00.000Z · A vs PSM Makassar · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-28T08:30:00.000Z · Tampines Rovers 1-2 Arema FC (Piala Presiden)
Piala Presiden table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Persib Bandung | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 2 | Arema FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Tampines Rovers | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 4 | DPMM FC Brunei | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 1 | Persebaya Surabaya | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 2 | Persija | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Port FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | PSMS Medan | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.