The Lamb Ground · Analysis updated 14:36 UTC
Tamworth vs Middlesbrough U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.75 expected goals for Tamworth and 4.50 for Middlesbrough U21, a combined total of 7.25. That distribution gives Middlesbrough U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 93% for over 2.5 goals and 89% for both teams to score, with 2–4 the single most likely scoreline at 5%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Middlesbrough U21 win
66.6% probability
Expected goals
2.75 – 4.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tamworth home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Middlesbrough U21 away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Middlesbrough U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 21% / 13% / 67% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.75 goals for Tamworth and 4.50 for Middlesbrough U21, a combined 7.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
33%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–44.6%
- 3–44.2%
- 2–54.1%
- 2–34.1%
- 3–53.8%
Recent form
Tamworth
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Aldershot Town · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Wealdstone · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Southend · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Harrogate Town · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Middlesbrough U21 · 1-3 (L)
Middlesbrough U21
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Genk U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Aston Villa U21 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Leeds United U21 · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Tamworth · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-31T12:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Bournemouth U21 · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-01-28T19:45:00.000Z · Tamworth 0-2 Middlesbrough U21 (National League Cup)
National League Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough U21 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 9 |
| 2 | FC Halifax Town | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| 3 | Truro City | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 4 | West Ham United U21 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 5 | Scunthorpe | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 6 | Boreham Wood | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 7 | Tamworth | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Solihull Moors | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 9 | Woking | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| 10 | Sutton Utd | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | AFC Hornchurch | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 | West Bromwich Albion U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 13 | Everton U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 14 | Aldershot Town | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 15 | Braintree | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 16 | Norwich City U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 17 | Wolves U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 18 | Derby County U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 19 | Birmingham City U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 20 | Ipswich Town U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 21 | Wealdstone | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| 22 | Southampton U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 23 | Newcastle United U21 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 24 | Leeds United U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 25 | Fulham U21 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 26 | Gateshead | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 27 | Leicester City U21 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 2 |
| 28 | Nottingham Forest U21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 29 | Worthing | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 30 | Boston United | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 31 | Stoke City U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -12 | 0 |
| 32 | Hartlepool | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -12 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Middlesbrough U21 win, at 66.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–4.
It puts both teams scoring at 89% and over 2.5 goals at 93%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.