The Lamb Ground · Analysis updated 02:18 UTC
Tamworth vs Newcastle United U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.63 expected goals for Tamworth and 1.72 for Newcastle United U21, a combined total of 4.35. That distribution gives Tamworth the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tamworth win
57.4% probability
Expected goals
2.63 – 1.72
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tamworth home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Newcastle United U21 away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tamworth to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 18% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.63 goals for Tamworth and 1.72 for Newcastle United U21, a combined 4.35 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.7%
- 3–16.7%
- 2–26.6%
- 1–15.8%
- 3–25.8%
Recent form
Tamworth
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Aldershot Town · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Wealdstone · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Southend · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Harrogate Town · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Middlesbrough U21 · 1-3 (L)
Newcastle United U21
- 2026-10-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Hartlepool · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Luton Town U21 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Solihull Moors · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Bradford · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Leeds United U21 · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough U21 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 9 |
| 2 | FC Halifax Town | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| 3 | Truro City | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 4 | West Ham United U21 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 5 | Scunthorpe | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 6 | Boreham Wood | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 7 | Tamworth | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Solihull Moors | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 9 | Woking | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| 10 | Sutton Utd | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | AFC Hornchurch | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 | West Bromwich Albion U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 13 | Everton U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 14 | Aldershot Town | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 15 | Braintree | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 16 | Norwich City U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 17 | Wolves U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 18 | Derby County U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 19 | Birmingham City U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 20 | Ipswich Town U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 21 | Wealdstone | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| 22 | Southampton U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 23 | Newcastle United U21 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 24 | Leeds United U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 25 | Fulham U21 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 26 | Gateshead | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 27 | Leicester City U21 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 2 |
| 28 | Nottingham Forest U21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 29 | Worthing | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 30 | Boston United | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 31 | Stoke City U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -12 | 0 |
| 32 | Hartlepool | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -12 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tamworth win, at 57.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.