Jurong East Stadium · Analysis updated 08:36 UTC
Tanjong Pagar vs Albirex Niigata S Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Tanjong Pagar and 2.33 for Albirex Niigata S, a combined total of 3.65. That distribution gives Albirex Niigata S the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Albirex Niigata S win
59.7% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 2.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tanjong Pagar home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Albirex Niigata S away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.3%
- 1–18.0%
- 1–37.2%
- 0–27.0%
- 2–26.2%
Recent form
Tanjong Pagar
- 2026-10-16T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Hougang United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Tampines Rovers · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Balestier Khalsa · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-14T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Geylang International · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-18T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Hougang United · 2-1 (W)
Albirex Niigata S
- 2026-09-18T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Hougang United · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Young Lions · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-05-16T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Young Lions · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Home United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-04T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Young Lions · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-25T11:30:00.000Z · Tanjong Pagar 0-4 Albirex Niigata S (Premier League)
- 2026-03-06T12:30:00.000Z · Tanjong Pagar 0-2 Albirex Niigata S (Premier League)
- 2026-01-17T11:30:00.000Z · Tanjong Pagar 2-3 Albirex Niigata S (Premier League)
- 2025-11-23T11:30:00.000Z · Tanjong Pagar 0-1 Albirex Niigata S (Cup)
- 2025-05-16T11:45:00.000Z · Tanjong Pagar 1-5 Albirex Niigata S (Premier League)
- 2025-02-21T11:45:00.000Z · Tanjong Pagar 1-2 Albirex Niigata S (Premier League)
- 2024-09-20T11:45:00.000Z · Tanjong Pagar 1-4 Albirex Niigata S (Premier League)
- 2024-07-12T11:45:00.000Z · Tanjong Pagar 2-1 Albirex Niigata S (Premier League)
- 2024-04-13T10:00:00.000Z · Tanjong Pagar 4-0 Albirex Niigata S (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-08-11T11:45:00.000Z · Tanjong Pagar 2-3 Albirex Niigata S (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geylang International | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Tampines Rovers | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| 3 | Home United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| 4 | Balestier Khalsa | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 5 | Albirex Niigata S | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | Tanjong Pagar | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 6 |
| 7 | Hougang United | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 1 |
| 8 | Young Lions | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -17 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Albirex Niigata S win, at 59.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.