Jurong East Stadium · Analysis updated 14:04 UTC
Tanjong Pagar vs Home United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.65 expected goals for Tanjong Pagar and 3.68 for Home United, a combined total of 4.32. That distribution gives Home United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 90%, with the draw at 7%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 90% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home United win
89.8% probability
Expected goals
0.65 – 3.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tanjong Pagar home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Home United away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Home United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 90%, against 3% / 7% / 90% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.65 goals for Tanjong Pagar and 3.68 for Home United, a combined 4.32 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
10%
Double chance 12
93%
Double chance X2
97%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–310.9%
- 0–410.1%
- 0–28.9%
- 0–57.4%
- 1–37.1%
Recent form
Tanjong Pagar
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Balestier Khalsa · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-14T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Geylang International · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-18T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Hougang United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-09T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Balestier Khalsa · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-05-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hougang United · 1-2 (L)
Home United
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Young Lions · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-10-08T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Công An Nhân Dân · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs BG Pathum United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Hougang United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Xerez Deportivo · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Albirex Niigata S | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 2 | Geylang International | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 3 | Tampines Rovers | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Tanjong Pagar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Home United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Hougang United | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 7 | Balestier Khalsa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 8 | Young Lions | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home United win, at 89.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 90% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.