Jurong East Stadium · Analysis updated 15:56 UTC
Tanjong Pagar vs Hougang United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.37 expected goals for Tanjong Pagar and 1.55 for Hougang United, a combined total of 3.91. That distribution gives Tanjong Pagar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tanjong Pagar win
55.9% probability
Expected goals
2.37 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tanjong Pagar home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hougang United away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.7%
- 1–17.3%
- 3–16.8%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–25.7%
Recent form
Tanjong Pagar
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Balestier Khalsa · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-14T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Geylang International · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-18T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Hougang United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-09T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Balestier Khalsa · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-05-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hougang United · 1-2 (L)
Hougang United
- 2026-10-16T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Tanjong Pagar · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-12T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Balestier Khalsa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Albirex Niigata S · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Home United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-18T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Tanjong Pagar · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-18T11:30:00.000Z · Tanjong Pagar 2-1 Hougang United (Premier League)
- 2026-05-05T12:00:00.000Z · Tanjong Pagar 1-2 Hougang United (Premier League)
- 2026-02-23T12:30:00.000Z · Tanjong Pagar 0-3 Hougang United (Premier League)
- 2025-11-07T11:30:00.000Z · Tanjong Pagar 2-3 Hougang United (Cup)
- 2025-05-13T11:45:00.000Z · Tanjong Pagar 1-1 Hougang United (Premier League)
- 2024-11-01T11:45:00.000Z · Tanjong Pagar 0-6 Hougang United (Premier League)
- 2024-08-11T10:00:00.000Z · Tanjong Pagar 1-5 Hougang United (Premier League)
- 2024-05-26T10:00:00.000Z · Tanjong Pagar 1-1 Hougang United (Premier League)
- 2023-09-25T11:45:00.000Z · Tanjong Pagar 2-1 Hougang United (Cup)
- 2023-08-19T10:00:00.000Z · Tanjong Pagar 3-3 Hougang United (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Albirex Niigata S | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 2 | Geylang International | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 3 | Tampines Rovers | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Tanjong Pagar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Home United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Hougang United | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 7 | Balestier Khalsa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 8 | Young Lions | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tanjong Pagar win, at 55.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.