Jurong East Stadium · Referee M. Hilmi Bin Mohammad Fuad · Analysis updated 23:50 UTC
Tanjong Pagar vs Young Lions Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.11 expected goals for Tanjong Pagar and 1.33 for Young Lions, a combined total of 4.44. That distribution gives Tanjong Pagar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tanjong Pagar win
72.6% probability
Expected goals
3.11 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tanjong Pagar home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tanjong Pagar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 73% / 14% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.11 goals for Tanjong Pagar and 1.33 for Young Lions, a combined 4.44 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 82% and both teams to score at 70%, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
27%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.9%
- 2–17.6%
- 4–16.1%
- 3–05.9%
- 2–05.7%
Recent form
Tanjong Pagar
- 2026-10-16T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Hougang United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Tampines Rovers · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Balestier Khalsa · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-14T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Geylang International · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-18T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Hougang United · 2-1 (W)
Young Lions
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geylang International | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Tampines Rovers | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| 3 | Home United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| 4 | Balestier Khalsa | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 5 | Albirex Niigata S | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | Tanjong Pagar | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 6 |
| 7 | Hougang United | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 1 |
| 8 | Young Lions | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -17 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tanjong Pagar win, at 72.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.