Sokoine Stadium · Analysis updated 07:21 UTC
Tanzania Prisons vs Mbeya City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.92 expected goals for Tanzania Prisons and 1.14 for Mbeya City, a combined total of 2.06. That distribution gives Mbeya City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.6% probability
Expected goals
0.92 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tanzania Prisons home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Mbeya City away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mbeya City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 29% / 30% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.92 goals for Tanzania Prisons and 1.14 for Mbeya City, a combined 2.06 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.5%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–012.7%
- 1–011.7%
- 0–28.3%
Recent form
Tanzania Prisons
- 2026-07-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Polisi Tanzania · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Polisi Tanzania · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-07-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mbeya City · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mbeya City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mashujaa · 1-0 (W)
Mbeya City
- 2026-08-28T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fountain Gate · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mashujaa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Dodoma Jiji · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-14T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Geita Gold · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tanzania Prisons · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligi kuu Bara table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simba | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 24 |
| 2 | Young Africans | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 3 | Azam | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 4 | JKT Tanzania | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 5 | Dodoma Jiji | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Polisi Tanzania | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | Namungo | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 8 | Mashujaa | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 9 | Singida Black Stars | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Mbeya City | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Coastal Union | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 | Tabora United | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Geita Gold | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 7 |
| 14 | Pamba Jiji | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 6 |
| 15 | Kagera Sugar | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 16 | Fountain Gate | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.