· Analysis updated 04:11 UTC
Tapachula vs Chapulineros Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Tapachula and 1.77 for Chapulineros, a combined total of 3.36. That distribution gives Chapulineros the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.3% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tapachula home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chapulineros away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chapulineros to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 35% / 23% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Tapachula and 1.77 for Chapulineros, a combined 3.36 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.8%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–17.7%
- 2–26.9%
- 0–16.2%
Recent form
Tapachula
- 2026-10-24T23:00:00.000Z · H vs H2O Purepechas · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-20T02:05:00.000Z · H vs Deportiva Venados · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Montañeses · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Chapulineros · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Pioneros de Cancún · 1-5 (L)
Chapulineros
- 2026-10-03T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Tapachula · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Pioneros de Cancún · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Playa del Carmen · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Celaya · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing de Veracruz · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera Premier table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Irapuato | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 24 |
| 2 | Racing de Veracruz | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 18 |
| 3 | Pioneros de Cancún | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 17 |
| 4 | Celaya | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 16 |
| 5 | Reboceros La Piedad | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 6 | Tigres de Alica | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Jaguares de Chiapas | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 8 | Deportiva Venados | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Zacatepec 1948 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 10 | Chapulineros | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 11 | Lobos ULMX | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Los Cabos United | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Montañeses | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 14 | Cordobés | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | Tapachula | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 6 |
| 16 | H2O Purepechas | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Inter Playa del Carmen | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 4 |
| 18 | Tritons Vallarta | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.