Tapachula Olympic Stadium · Analysis updated 04:57 UTC
Tapachula vs Racing de Veracruz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.06 expected goals for Tapachula and 2.70 for Racing de Veracruz, a combined total of 3.76. That distribution gives Racing de Veracruz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Racing de Veracruz win
72.0% probability
Expected goals
1.06 – 2.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tapachula home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Racing de Veracruz away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Racing de Veracruz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 12% / 16% / 72% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.06 goals for Tapachula and 2.70 for Racing de Veracruz, a combined 3.76 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
28%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
88%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.0%
- 0–28.5%
- 1–38.1%
- 0–37.6%
- 1–16.7%
Recent form
Tapachula
- 2026-10-24T23:00:00.000Z · H vs H2O Purepechas · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-20T02:05:00.000Z · H vs Deportiva Venados · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Montañeses · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Chapulineros · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Pioneros de Cancún · 1-5 (L)
Racing de Veracruz
- 2026-09-29T02:05:00.000Z · A vs Jaguares de Chiapas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportiva Venados · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Montañeses · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Chapulineros · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Tapachula · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera Premier table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Irapuato | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 24 |
| 2 | Racing de Veracruz | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 18 |
| 3 | Pioneros de Cancún | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 17 |
| 4 | Celaya | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 16 |
| 5 | Reboceros La Piedad | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 6 | Tigres de Alica | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Jaguares de Chiapas | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 8 | Deportiva Venados | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Zacatepec 1948 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 10 | Chapulineros | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 11 | Lobos ULMX | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Los Cabos United | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Montañeses | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 14 | Cordobés | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | Tapachula | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 6 |
| 16 | H2O Purepechas | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Inter Playa del Carmen | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 4 |
| 18 | Tritons Vallarta | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Racing de Veracruz win, at 72.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.