Tapatío vs Leones Negros UDG Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Tapatío and 1.90 for Leones Negros UDG, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Leones Negros UDG the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Leones Negros UDG win

46.6% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.53 – 1.90

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Tapatío home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Leones Negros UDG away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Leones Negros UDG to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 31% / 22% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Tapatío and 1.90 for Leones Negros UDG, a combined 3.43 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Tapatío win31%

Draw22%

Leones Negros UDG win47%

Double chance 1X

53%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals45%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

1–19.4%
1–29.0%
2–17.2%
2–26.8%
0–16.2%

Recent form

Tapatío

2026-10-09T23:00:00.000Z · H vs CA La Paz · 2-4 (L)
2026-10-04T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Cancún · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Tlaxcala · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-13T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Dorados · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-06T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Leones Negros UDG · 1-3 (L)

Leones Negros UDG

2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Venados FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Dorados · 6-3 (W)
2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Monarcas · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga de Expansión MX table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	CA La Paz	13	7	3	3	13	24
2	Leones Negros UDG	13	7	3	3	10	24
3	Monarcas	13	7	2	4	8	23
4	Piratas	13	6	3	4	7	21
5	Venados FC	13	6	3	4	5	21
6	Durango	13	6	3	4	5	21
7	Cancún	13	5	4	4	4	19
8	Mineros de Zacatecas	13	5	3	5	3	18
9	Tapatío	13	5	2	6	-2	17
10	Dorados	13	4	4	5	-1	16
11	Correcaminos Uat	13	4	4	5	-1	16
12	Tlaxcala	13	4	4	5	-2	16
13	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	13	5	1	7	-12	16
14	CDS Tampico Madero	13	4	3	6	-6	15
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	13	3	5	5	-4	14
16	Tepatitlán	13	2	1	10	-27	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Leones Negros UDG win, at 46.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.