Estadio Akron · Referee B. Jimenez Morales · Analysis updated 07:30 UTC
Tapatío vs Tlaxcala Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Tapatío and 1.07 for Tlaxcala, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Tapatío the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tapatío win
46.6% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tapatío home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tlaxcala away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 1–011.6%
- 2–19.2%
- 2–08.6%
- 0–18.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.25 (model 49.3% vs market 41.1%, edge +8.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.25 | 41.1% | 49.3% | 2.03 | +8.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.80 | 52.3% | 53.4% | 1.87 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Away | 3.30 | 27.0% | 27.4% | 3.65 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.30 | 72.4% | 72.6% | 1.38 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.91 | 46.7% | 46.6% | 2.15 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 26.2% | 26.0% | 3.85 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.3% | 74.0% | 1.35 | -1.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.57 | 58.9% | 50.7% | 1.97 | -8.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Tapatío
- 2026-10-09T23:00:00.000Z · H vs CA La Paz · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-04T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Cancún · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Tlaxcala · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Dorados · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Leones Negros UDG · 1-3 (L)
Tlaxcala
- 2026-10-10T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Piratas · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Monarcas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cancún · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Tapatío · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T22:00:00.000Z · H vs CDS Tampico Madero · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T23:00:00.000Z · Tapatío 4-0 Tlaxcala (Liga de Expansión MX)
- 2026-04-07T23:00:00.000Z · Tapatío 3-0 Tlaxcala (Liga de Expansión MX)
- 2025-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · Tapatío 0-1 Tlaxcala (Liga de Expansión MX)
- 2025-03-09T18:00:00.000Z · Tapatío 1-0 Tlaxcala (Liga de Expansión MX)
- 2024-09-22T01:00:00.000Z · Tapatío 3-2 Tlaxcala (Liga de Expansión MX)
- 2024-03-13T01:05:00.000Z · Tapatío 3-0 Tlaxcala (Liga de Expansión MX)
- 2023-08-24T23:05:00.000Z · Tapatío 2-0 Tlaxcala (Liga de Expansión MX)
- 2023-05-06T23:00:00.000Z · Tapatío 1-1 Tlaxcala (Liga de Expansión MX)
- 2023-05-04T03:05:00.000Z · Tapatío 2-2 Tlaxcala (Liga de Expansión MX)
- 2023-02-21T23:05:00.000Z · Tapatío 2-1 Tlaxcala (Liga de Expansión MX)
Liga de Expansión MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CA La Paz | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 24 |
| 2 | Leones Negros UDG | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 24 |
| 3 | Monarcas | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 23 |
| 4 | Piratas | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 21 |
| 5 | Venados FC | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 21 |
| 6 | Durango | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 21 |
| 7 | Cancún | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 |
| 8 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 18 |
| 9 | Tapatío | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 17 |
| 10 | Dorados | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 11 | Correcaminos Uat | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 12 | Tlaxcala | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 13 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | -12 | 16 |
| 14 | CDS Tampico Madero | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 15 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 16 | Tepatitlán | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | -27 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tapatío win, at 46.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.