Tarancón vs Cazalegas Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Tarancón and 0.52 for Cazalegas, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Tarancón the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Tarancón win

67.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.78 – 0.52

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Tarancón home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cazalegas away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Tarancón win68%

Draw22%

Cazalegas win10%

Double chance 1X

90%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

32%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals67%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score34%

Correct score

1–017.8%
2–015.8%
0–010.0%
3–09.3%
1–19.3%

Recent form

Tarancón

2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Guadalajara II · 6-2 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs CD Villa · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Torrijos · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Illescas · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchego · 0-1 (L)

Cazalegas

2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tarancón · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Pedroñeras · 2-1 (W)
2026-04-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Calvo Sotelo · 0-1 (L)
2026-04-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs San Clemente · 0-2 (L)
2026-04-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Villacañas · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · Tarancón 3-0 Cazalegas (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
2026-01-11T11:00:00.000Z · Tarancón 2-1 Cazalegas (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
2025-01-25T15:30:00.000Z · Tarancón 2-0 Cazalegas (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
2024-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · Tarancón 3-2 Cazalegas (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
2024-04-14T10:00:00.000Z · Tarancón 3-1 Cazalegas (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
2023-11-25T15:30:00.000Z · Tarancón 2-4 Cazalegas (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchego	6	5	0	1	4	15
2	Torrijos	6	4	2	0	8	14
3	Illescas	6	4	2	0	5	14
4	Toledo	6	4	1	1	8	13
5	Villarrobledo	6	3	3	0	7	12
6	CD Villa	6	4	0	2	3	12
7	Almansa	6	3	1	2	5	10
8	Tarancón	6	3	1	2	4	10
9	Villacañas	6	2	2	2	2	8
10	Marchamalo	6	2	2	2	1	8
11	San Clemente	6	2	2	2	-2	8
12	Noblejas	6	2	1	3	-5	7
13	Quintanar del Rey	6	1	2	3	-5	5
14	Socuéllamos	6	0	4	2	-3	4
15	La Solana	6	1	0	5	-6	3
16	Villarrubia	6	0	3	3	-7	3
17	Guadalajara II	6	0	2	4	-7	2
18	Huracán Balazote	6	0	0	6	-12	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Tarancón win, at 67.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.