· Analysis updated 03:57 UTC
Tarancón vs Villarrubia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Tarancón and 0.93 for Villarrubia, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Tarancón the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.2% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tarancón home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Villarrubia away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tarancón to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 30% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Tarancón and 0.93 for Villarrubia, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.4%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–012.2%
- 0–111.3%
- 2–08.5%
Recent form
Tarancón
- 2026-10-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Villarrubia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Quintanar del Rey · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Socuéllamos · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Marchamalo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Guadalajara II · 6-2 (W)
Villarrubia
- 2026-10-24T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tarancón · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Guadalajara II · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs CD Villa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Torrijos · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Illescas · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchego | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 2 | Toledo | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | Villarrobledo | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 16 |
| 4 | CD Villa | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Villacañas | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 6 | Tarancón | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 7 | Illescas | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Torrijos | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Noblejas | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 10 | San Clemente | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | Almansa | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 12 | Marchamalo | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Villarrubia | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | Socuéllamos | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | La Solana | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -5 | 6 |
| 16 | Quintanar del Rey | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 17 | Huracán Balazote | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 | Guadalajara II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -14 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.