Taraz vs Tobol 2 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Taraz and 1.39 for Tobol 2, a combined total of 3.58. That distribution gives Taraz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Taraz win

55.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.18 – 1.39

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Taraz home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tobol 2 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Taraz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 20% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Taraz and 1.39 for Tobol 2, a combined 3.58 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Taraz win55%

Draw20%

Tobol 2 win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals69%

Over 3.5 goals48%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

2–19.3%
1–18.5%
3–16.8%
2–06.7%
2–26.5%

Recent form

Taraz

2026-09-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Shakhter Karagandy · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Khan Tengri · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Astana II · 0-4 (L)
2026-08-28T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tobol 2 · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Arys · 1-1 (D)

Tobol 2

2026-09-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Ekibastuz · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sport Academy Kairat · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-28T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Taraz · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Khan Tengri · 3-4 (L)
2026-08-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Astana II · 4-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1. Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Shakhter Karagandy	23	20	2	1	56	62
2	Sport Academy Kairat	23	17	5	1	54	56
3	Turan Turkistan	23	16	2	5	30	50
4	Akademiya Ontustik	23	13	4	6	9	43
5	Astana II	23	10	3	10	-1	33
6	Jaiyq	23	9	4	10	-5	31
7	Taraz	23	8	6	9	-2	30
8	Ekibastuz	23	7	5	11	-22	26
9	Kaspij Aktau 2	23	7	4	12	-12	25
10	Khan Tengri	23	7	4	12	-15	25
11	Arys	23	7	3	13	-14	24
12	Aktobe Jas	23	6	5	12	-31	23
13	Tobol 2	23	4	4	15	-17	16
14	Yelimay Semey 2	23	3	3	17	-30	12

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Taraz win, at 55.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.