Stade Maurice Trélut 2 - Terrain B · Analysis updated 02:57 UTC
Tarbes vs Lège-Cap-Ferret Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Tarbes and 1.13 for Lège-Cap-Ferret, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Tarbes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tarbes win
49.0% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tarbes home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lège-Cap-Ferret away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tarbes to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 25% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Tarbes and 1.13 for Lège-Cap-Ferret, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.4%
- 0–17.2%
Recent form
Tarbes
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinan Léhon · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Les Herbiers · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Angoulême · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Châteaubriant · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lorient II · 1-0 (W)
Lège-Cap-Ferret
- 2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Anglet Genets · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Blagnac · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-04-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tarbes · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-04-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Canet Roussillon · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Toulouse II · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-25T16:00:00.000Z · Tarbes 4-4 Lège-Cap-Ferret (National 3 - Group A)
- 2026-01-10T18:00:00.000Z · Tarbes 4-0 Lège-Cap-Ferret (National 3 - Group A)
National 3 - Group A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarbes | 26 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 26 | 47 |
| 2 | Canet Roussillon | 26 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 45 |
| 3 | Colomiers | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 43 |
| 4 | Onet-le-Château | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 39 |
| 5 | Pau II | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 37 |
| 6 | Anglet Genets | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 37 |
| 7 | Bassin d'Arcachon Sud | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 36 |
| 8 | Toulouse II | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 4 | 33 |
| 9 | Castanet | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | -5 | 32 |
| 10 | Blagnac | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 29 |
| 11 | Lège-Cap-Ferret | 26 | 6 | 10 | 10 | -15 | 28 |
| 12 | SAG Cestas | 26 | 6 | 10 | 10 | -16 | 28 |
| 13 | Agde | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | -20 | 24 |
| 14 | Alberes Argelès | 26 | 5 | 6 | 15 | -16 | 21 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tarbes win, at 49.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.