Tarpa Sportcentrum · Analysis updated 15:20 UTC
Tarpa vs Hartai Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Tarpa and 1.66 for Hartai, a combined total of 3.36. That distribution gives Tarpa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.2% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.66
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tarpa home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tarpa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 23% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Tarpa and 1.66 for Hartai, a combined 3.36 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 65% and both teams to score at 66%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.8%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–28.1%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–05.9%
Recent form
Tarpa
- 2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Kisvárda II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Debrecen II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Nyiregyhaza II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Salgótarjáni BTC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tiszafuredi VSE · 0-1 (L)
Hartai
- 2026-08-22T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Pénzügyőr · 2-1 (W)
- 2024-09-14T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tarpa · 0-5 (L)
- 2024-08-24T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Jánoshalmi · 3-2 (W)
- 2024-08-03T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Füzesgyarmati · 6-0 (W)
- 2023-08-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs ESMTK · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2024-09-14T13:00:00.000Z · Tarpa 5-0 Hartai (Magyar Kupa)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.