· Analysis updated 07:00 UTC
Tartu Kalev vs Tallinna Kalev II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.35 expected goals for Tartu Kalev and 1.10 for Tallinna Kalev II, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Tartu Kalev the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tartu Kalev win
65.2% probability
Expected goals
2.35 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tartu Kalev home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tallinna Kalev II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.6%
- 2–08.8%
- 1–18.2%
- 3–17.6%
- 1–07.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.4%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.80 | 32.3% | 34.8% | 2.87 | +2.5 |
| Match result | Home | 1.36 | 64.8% | 65.2% | 1.53 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.80 | 18.4% | 18.5% | 5.41 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 5.25 | 16.8% | 16.3% | 6.13 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.07 | 84.6% | 83.7% | 1.19 | -0.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.09 | 83.1% | 81.5% | 1.23 | -1.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Tartu Kalev
- 2026-10-10T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Levadia U19 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Tulevik · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Legion · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Narva U21 · 0-1 (L)
Tallinna Kalev II
- 2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Tulevik · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Narva U21 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Johvi Phoenix · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs JK Tabasalu · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-25T15:00:00.000Z · Tartu Kalev 1-1 Tallinna Kalev II (Esiliiga B)
- 2026-06-01T16:00:00.000Z · Tartu Kalev 2-7 Tallinna Kalev II (Esiliiga B)
- 2026-04-24T16:00:00.000Z · Tartu Kalev 1-3 Tallinna Kalev II (Esiliiga B)
- 2024-02-18T16:00:00.000Z · Tartu Kalev 2-2 Tallinna Kalev II (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-01-20T12:15:00.000Z · Tartu Kalev 4-2 Tallinna Kalev II (Friendlies Clubs)
Esiliiga B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Narva U21 | 34 | 23 | 4 | 7 | 39 | 73 |
| 2 | Levadia U19 | 33 | 21 | 2 | 10 | 30 | 65 |
| 3 | Luunja | 34 | 18 | 5 | 11 | 26 | 59 |
| 4 | Phoenix | 34 | 18 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 57 |
| 5 | Tulevik | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 18 | 53 |
| 6 | Parnu JK Vaprus U21 | 33 | 15 | 5 | 13 | 33 | 50 |
| 7 | Tartu Kalev | 34 | 16 | 2 | 16 | 13 | 50 |
| 8 | JK Tabasalu | 34 | 11 | 4 | 19 | -38 | 37 |
| 9 | Tallinna Kalev II | 34 | 8 | 6 | 20 | -18 | 30 |
| 10 | Legion | 34 | 3 | 4 | 27 | -103 | 13 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tartu Kalev win, at 65.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.