Tartu Welco vs FC Tallinn Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.80 expected goals for Tartu Welco and 0.93 for FC Tallinn, a combined total of 4.73. That distribution gives Tartu Welco the largest share of the 1X2 market at 87%, with the draw at 8%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 87% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Tartu Welco win

86.9% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

3.80 – 0.93

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Tartu Welco home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Tallinn away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tartu Welco to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 87%, against 87% / 8% / 5% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.80 goals for Tartu Welco and 0.93 for FC Tallinn, a combined 4.73 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Tartu Welco win87%

Draw8%

FC Tallinn win5%

Double chance 1X

95%

Double chance 12

92%

Double chance X2

13%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals93%

Over 2.5 goals84%

Over 3.5 goals68%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

3–08.1%
4–07.7%
3–17.5%
4–17.1%
2–06.4%

Recent form

Tartu Welco

2026-10-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tallinna Kalev · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-18T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Nõmme United II · 4-3 (W)
2026-10-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Tallinn · 7-0 (W)
2026-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Elva · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Viimsi · 2-0 (W)

FC Tallinn

2026-10-24T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Nõmme Kalju II · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Viimsi · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tartu Welco · 0-7 (L)
2026-10-10T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Flora II · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Laagri · 0-10 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Esiliiga A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tartu Welco	34	23	5	6	55	74
2	Viimsi	33	17	6	10	29	57
3	Flora II	32	15	6	11	19	51
4	FCI Levadia II	33	16	3	14	8	51
5	Elva	33	14	8	11	-1	50
6	Maardu	31	12	8	11	-12	44
7	FC Tallinn	34	10	8	16	-34	38
8	Tallinna Kalev	32	10	7	15	-6	37
9	Nõmme United II	34	10	7	17	-15	37
10	Nõmme Kalju II	34	6	6	22	-43	24

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Tartu Welco win, at 86.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.

A 87% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.