Holm Jalgpallipark · Analysis updated 09:37 UTC
Tartu Welco vs Nõmme Kalju II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.03 expected goals for Tartu Welco and 0.86 for Nõmme Kalju II, a combined total of 4.88. That distribution gives Tartu Welco the largest share of the 1X2 market at 90%, with the draw at 7%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 4–0 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 90% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tartu Welco win
89.5% probability
Expected goals
4.03 – 0.86
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tartu Welco home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nõmme Kalju II away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tartu Welco to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 90%, against 90% / 7% / 4% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.03 goals for Tartu Welco and 0.86 for Nõmme Kalju II, a combined 4.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
96%
Double chance 12
93%
Double chance X2
11%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–08.3%
- 3–08.2%
- 4–17.1%
- 3–17.1%
- 5–06.7%
Recent form
Tartu Welco
- 2026-10-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tallinna Kalev · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-18T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Nõmme United II · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Tallinn · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Elva · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Viimsi · 2-0 (W)
Nõmme Kalju II
- 2026-10-24T09:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Tallinn · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Elva · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FCI Levadia II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Maardu · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-21T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Nõmme United II · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Esiliiga A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tartu Welco | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 55 | 74 |
| 2 | Viimsi | 33 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 29 | 57 |
| 3 | Flora II | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 19 | 51 |
| 4 | FCI Levadia II | 33 | 16 | 3 | 14 | 8 | 51 |
| 5 | Elva | 33 | 14 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 50 |
| 6 | Maardu | 31 | 12 | 8 | 11 | -12 | 44 |
| 7 | FC Tallinn | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | -34 | 38 |
| 8 | Tallinna Kalev | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | -6 | 37 |
| 9 | Nõmme United II | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | -15 | 37 |
| 10 | Nõmme Kalju II | 34 | 6 | 6 | 22 | -43 | 24 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tartu Welco win, at 89.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.
A 90% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.