Tartu Welco vs Tallinna Kalev Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Tartu Welco and 1.20 for Tallinna Kalev, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Tartu Welco the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Tartu Welco win

61.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.25 – 1.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Tartu Welco home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tallinna Kalev away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tartu Welco to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 20% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.25 goals for Tartu Welco and 1.20 for Tallinna Kalev, a combined 3.45 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Tartu Welco win61%

Draw20%

Tallinna Kalev win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

39%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals45%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

2–19.6%
1–18.6%
2–08.0%
3–17.2%
1–07.1%

Recent form

Tartu Welco

2026-10-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tallinna Kalev · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-18T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Nõmme United II · 4-3 (W)
2026-10-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Tallinn · 7-0 (W)
2026-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Elva · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Viimsi · 2-0 (W)

Tallinna Kalev

2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Viimsi · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Elva · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-18T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Flora II · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Maardu · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-10T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Nõmme United II · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Esiliiga A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tartu Welco	34	23	5	6	55	74
2	Viimsi	33	17	6	10	29	57
3	Flora II	32	15	6	11	19	51
4	FCI Levadia II	33	16	3	14	8	51
5	Elva	33	14	8	11	-1	50
6	Maardu	31	12	8	11	-12	44
7	FC Tallinn	34	10	8	16	-34	38
8	Tallinna Kalev	32	10	7	15	-6	37
9	Nõmme United II	34	10	7	17	-15	37
10	Nõmme Kalju II	34	6	6	22	-43	24

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Tartu Welco win, at 61.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.