· Analysis updated 17:16 UTC
Tarup-Paarup vs Næsby Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Tarup-Paarup and 1.87 for Næsby, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Næsby the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Næsby win
46.8% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.87
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tarup-Paarup home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Næsby away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Næsby to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 31% / 22% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Tarup-Paarup and 1.87 for Næsby, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.7%
- 1–29.1%
- 2–17.2%
- 2–26.7%
- 0–16.5%
Recent form
Tarup-Paarup
- 2026-08-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Vejle · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-03-28T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hedensted · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-03-21T12:00:00.000Z · A vs OKS · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-03-14T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Marienlyst · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-03-08T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Esbjerg II · 1-3 (L)
Næsby
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Vanløse · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Frem · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Holstebro · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Ringsted · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Helsingor · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Næsby win, at 46.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.