· Analysis updated 15:49 UTC
Tarxien Rainbows vs Zebbug Rangers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.92 expected goals for Tarxien Rainbows and 0.86 for Zebbug Rangers, a combined total of 3.77. That distribution gives Tarxien Rainbows the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tarxien Rainbows win
79.0% probability
Expected goals
2.92 – 0.86
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zebbug Rangers away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tarxien Rainbows to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 79%, against 79% / 13% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.92 goals for Tarxien Rainbows and 0.86 for Zebbug Rangers, a combined 3.77 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 72% and both teams to score at 54%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
21%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–09.8%
- 3–09.5%
- 2–18.4%
- 3–18.1%
- 4–06.9%
Recent form
Tarxien Rainbows
Zebbug Rangers
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tarxien Rainbows · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Swieqi United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Naxxar Lions · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Fgura United · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-18T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Marsa · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarxien Rainbows | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 15 |
| 2 | Fgura United | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 11 |
| 3 | Naxxar Lions | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Mgarr United | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Swieqi United | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Melita | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | St. Andrews | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 7 |
| 8 | Pietà Hotspurs | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Victoria Hotspurs | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Vittoriosa Stars | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 11 | Santa Lucía | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| 12 | Zurrieq | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Sirens | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 14 | Attard | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Zebbug Rangers | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 16 | Gudja United | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tarxien Rainbows win, at 79.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.