Tasmania Berlin vs BSG Chemie Leipzig Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Tasmania Berlin and 1.55 for BSG Chemie Leipzig, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives BSG Chemie Leipzig the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

69.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.25 – 1.55

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Tasmania Berlin home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
BSG Chemie Leipzig away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates BSG Chemie Leipzig to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 31% / 25% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Tasmania Berlin and 1.55 for BSG Chemie Leipzig, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Tasmania Berlin win31%

Draw25%

BSG Chemie Leipzig win44%

Double chance 1X

56%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–111.8%
0–19.4%
1–29.1%
1–07.6%
2–17.4%

Recent form

Tasmania Berlin

2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Carl Zeiss Jena · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs BFC Preussen · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs BSG Chemie Leipzig · 2-5 (L)
2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs BFC Dynamo · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Hallescher FC · 0-2 (L)

BSG Chemie Leipzig

2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotive Leipzig · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Luckenwalde · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Erzgebirge Aue · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Chemnitzer FC · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Tasmania Berlin · 5-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - Nordost table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt	14	9	4	1	24	31
2	Chemnitzer FC	14	9	3	2	21	30
3	Hallescher FC	13	8	4	1	11	28
4	Altglienicke	14	8	3	3	9	27
5	FC Carl Zeiss Jena	14	8	2	4	11	26
6	BFC Dynamo	14	7	5	2	9	26
7	Erzgebirge Aue	14	7	3	4	5	24
8	Greifswalder FC	14	6	4	4	5	22
9	Magdeburg II	14	6	1	7	-1	19
10	FSV Zwickau	14	5	4	5	-5	19
11	Lokomotive Leipzig	13	4	5	4	0	17
12	SV Babelsberg 03	14	4	4	6	-8	16
13	BFC Preussen	14	2	5	7	-6	11
14	Tasmania Berlin	14	3	2	9	-18	11
15	BSG Chemie Leipzig	13	2	4	7	-7	10
16	Hertha BSC II	13	2	4	7	-13	10
17	RSV Eintracht	14	2	3	9	-17	9
18	Luckenwalde	14	2	0	12	-20	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.