· Analysis updated 00:17 UTC
Tasmania Berlin vs Hertha Zehlendorf Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.58 expected goals for Tasmania Berlin and 1.98 for Hertha Zehlendorf, a combined total of 4.55. That distribution gives Tasmania Berlin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tasmania Berlin win
51.4% probability
Expected goals
2.58 – 1.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tasmania Berlin home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Hertha Zehlendorf away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tasmania Berlin to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 19% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.58 goals for Tasmania Berlin and 1.98 for Hertha Zehlendorf, a combined 4.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–16.9%
- 2–26.8%
- 3–15.9%
- 3–25.9%
- 1–15.4%
Recent form
Tasmania Berlin
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Carl Zeiss Jena · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs BFC Preussen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs BSG Chemie Leipzig · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs BFC Dynamo · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Hallescher FC · 0-2 (L)
Hertha Zehlendorf
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Optik Rathenow · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Siedenbollentin · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Lichtenberg · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hansa Rostock II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Anker Wismar · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tasmania Berlin win, at 51.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 79% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.