· Analysis updated 17:17 UTC
Tasmania Berlin vs Polonia Słubice Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Tasmania Berlin and 1.76 for Polonia Słubice, a combined total of 3.57. That distribution gives Tasmania Berlin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.1% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.76
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tasmania Berlin home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Polonia Słubice away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tasmania Berlin to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 22% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Tasmania Berlin and 1.76 for Polonia Słubice, a combined 3.57 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.0%
- 2–18.1%
- 1–27.9%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–05.1%
Recent form
Tasmania Berlin
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs RSV Eintracht · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Babelsberg 03 · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FSV Zwickau · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Carl Zeiss Jena · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs BFC Preussen · 1-1 (D)
Polonia Słubice
- 2026-07-25T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kluczevia Stargard · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Union Fürstenwalde · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-07-15T16:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Frankfurt · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Mieszko Gniezno · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-01-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs BAK '07 · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-18T12:00:00.000Z · Tasmania Berlin 1-2 Polonia Słubice (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.