· Analysis updated 08:02 UTC
Tasmania Berlin vs Tennis Borussia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Tasmania Berlin and 1.60 for Tennis Borussia, a combined total of 2.99. That distribution gives Tennis Borussia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.8% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tasmania Berlin home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Tennis Borussia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tennis Borussia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 33% / 24% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Tasmania Berlin and 1.60 for Tennis Borussia, a combined 2.99 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 1–29.0%
- 0–18.0%
- 2–17.8%
- 1–07.0%
Recent form
Tasmania Berlin
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Carl Zeiss Jena · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs BFC Preussen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs BSG Chemie Leipzig · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs BFC Dynamo · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Hallescher FC · 0-2 (L)
Tennis Borussia
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Optik Rathenow · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Siedenbollentin · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Lichtenberg · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hansa Rostock II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Anker Wismar · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.