Tatabánya vs Dorogi FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Tatabánya and 1.63 for Dorogi FC, a combined total of 3.58. That distribution gives Tatabánya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Tatabánya win

45.7% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.95 – 1.63

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Tatabánya home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dorogi FC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 5 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Tatabánya win46%

Draw22%

Dorogi FC win33%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals69%

Over 3.5 goals48%

Both teams to score69%

Correct score

1–18.9%
2–18.7%
1–27.2%
2–27.0%
3–15.6%

Recent form

Tatabánya

2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Komárom · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs 1908 SZAC · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Veszprém · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kecskeméti TE · 4-5 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Király SZE · 2-2 (D)

Dorogi FC

2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Gyori ETO II · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Haladás VSE · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs MTE 1904 · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Puskás II · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ujpest · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-04-25T18:00:00.000Z · Tatabánya 2-0 Dorogi FC (NB III - Northwest)
2025-10-12T11:00:00.000Z · Tatabánya 0-1 Dorogi FC (NB III - Northwest)
2024-04-07T14:00:00.000Z · Tatabánya 1-0 Dorogi FC (NB III - Northwest)
2023-09-24T14:00:00.000Z · Tatabánya 3-1 Dorogi FC (NB III - Northwest)
2016-09-21T17:00:00.000Z · Tatabánya 0-3 Dorogi FC (Magyar Kupa)

NB III - Northwest table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Dorogi FC	13	9	3	1	24	30
2	Tatabánya	13	9	3	1	21	30
3	Haladás VSE	13	8	5	0	23	29
4	SC Sopron	13	6	3	4	5	21
5	Komárom	13	6	3	4	2	21
6	Sárisápi Bányász	13	6	3	4	0	21
7	MTE 1904	13	5	5	3	6	20
8	Puskás II	13	6	2	5	5	20
9	Bicskei	13	6	1	6	1	19
10	Zalaegerszegi TE II	13	5	2	6	-1	17
11	Gyori ETO II	13	4	2	7	-3	14
12	Veszprém	13	3	4	6	-7	13
13	Király SZE	13	3	4	6	-8	13
14	Pápai Perutz	13	3	2	8	-15	11
15	Balatonalmádi	13	2	2	9	-25	8
16	1908 SZAC	13	0	2	11	-28	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Tatabánya win, at 45.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.