Tatabánya vs Zalaegerszegi TE II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.77 expected goals for Tatabánya and 0.92 for Zalaegerszegi TE II, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives Tatabánya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Tatabánya win

75.8% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.77 – 0.92

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Tatabánya home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zalaegerszegi TE II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tatabánya to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 76% / 14% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.77 goals for Tatabánya and 0.92 for Zalaegerszegi TE II, a combined 3.70 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Tatabánya win76%

Draw14%

Zalaegerszegi TE II win10%

Double chance 1X

90%

Double chance 12

86%

Double chance X2

24%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Over 3.5 goals50%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

2–09.5%
2–18.8%
3–08.8%
3–18.1%
1–06.9%

Recent form

Tatabánya

2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Komárom · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs 1908 SZAC · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Veszprém · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kecskeméti TE · 4-5 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Király SZE · 2-2 (D)

Zalaegerszegi TE II

2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Bicskei · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gyori ETO II · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Haladás VSE · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs MTE 1904 · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dorogi FC · 4-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

NB III - Northwest table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Dorogi FC	11	8	2	1	22	26
2	Tatabánya	11	8	2	1	20	26
3	Haladás VSE	11	7	4	0	21	25
4	Sárisápi Bányász	11	6	2	3	1	20
5	SC Sopron	11	5	3	3	5	18
6	Bicskei	11	6	0	5	3	18
7	Puskás II	11	5	1	5	3	16
8	MTE 1904	11	4	4	3	3	16
9	Komárom	11	4	3	4	-2	15
10	Gyori ETO II	11	4	2	5	2	14
11	Veszprém	11	3	4	4	-3	13
12	Zalaegerszegi TE II	11	4	1	6	-3	13
13	Pápai Perutz	11	3	2	6	-12	11
14	Király SZE	11	1	4	6	-11	7
15	Balatonalmádi	11	1	2	8	-23	5
16	1908 SZAC	11	0	2	9	-26	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Tatabánya win, at 75.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.

A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.