Tatran Bohunice vs Kuřim Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Tatran Bohunice and 1.95 for Kuřim, a combined total of 3.78. That distribution gives Kuřim the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

63.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.83 – 1.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Tatran Bohunice home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kuřim away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kuřim to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 37% / 21% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.83 goals for Tatran Bohunice and 1.95 for Kuřim, a combined 3.78 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Tatran Bohunice win37%

Draw21%

Kuřim win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals73%

Over 3.5 goals52%

Both teams to score72%

Correct score

1–18.2%
1–28.0%
2–17.4%
2–27.3%
1–35.2%

Recent form

Tatran Bohunice

2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FS Třebíč · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-25T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Brno · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bystrc Kníničky · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-12T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Kuřim · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bedrichov · 4-0 (W)

Kuřim

2026-10-24T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Bystrc Kníničky · 7-0 (W)
2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Velká Bíteš · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Bedrichov · 13-0 (W)
2026-10-03T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Velké Meziříčí · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pelhřimov · 2-4 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-04-15T14:45:00.000Z · Tatran Bohunice 1-3 Kuřim (4. liga - Divizie D)
2025-08-16T08:15:00.000Z · Tatran Bohunice 2-2 Kuřim (4. liga - Divizie D)
2025-03-08T09:15:00.000Z · Tatran Bohunice 0-2 Kuřim (4. liga - Divizie D)
2024-08-03T08:15:00.000Z · Tatran Bohunice 0-3 Kuřim (4. liga - Divizie D)

4. liga - Divizie D table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kuřim	12	8	1	3	34	25
2	Sparta Brno	12	8	1	3	11	25
3	Tatran Bohunice	12	7	3	2	14	24
4	Velká Bíteš	12	7	3	2	8	24
5	FS Třebíč	12	6	3	3	-2	21
6	Sokol Tasovice	12	5	5	2	9	20
7	Havlíčkův Brod	12	6	2	4	5	20
8	Znojmo	12	5	3	4	5	18
9	Pelhřimov	12	4	2	6	-1	14
10	Bystrc Kníničky	12	3	5	4	-4	14
11	Žďár nad Sázavou	12	3	3	6	1	12
12	Ždírec nad Doubravou	12	2	5	5	-7	11
13	Chotebor	12	2	5	5	-11	11
14	Velké Meziříčí	12	2	5	5	-14	11
15	Humpolec	12	2	4	6	-7	10
16	Bedrichov	12	0	2	10	-41	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.