· Analysis updated 12:39 UTC
Tatran Bohunice vs Velké Meziříčí Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Tatran Bohunice and 0.80 for Velké Meziříčí, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Tatran Bohunice the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tatran Bohunice win
64.4% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tatran Bohunice home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Velké Meziříčí away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.5%
- 2–012.2%
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 3–07.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 14.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.15 (model 52.8% vs market 42.7%, edge +10.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.15 | 42.7% | 52.8% | 1.89 | +10.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.70 | 35.1% | 35.6% | 2.81 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.20 | 20.9% | 21.0% | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 78.9% | 79.0% | 1.27 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 6.00 | 14.6% | 14.6% | 6.85 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.36 | 64.5% | 64.4% | 1.55 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.10 | 86.1% | 85.4% | 1.17 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.60 | 57.3% | 47.2% | 2.12 | -10.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Tatran Bohunice
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FS Třebíč · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-25T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Brno · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bystrc Kníničky · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Kuřim · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bedrichov · 4-0 (W)
Velké Meziříčí
- 2026-10-03T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Kuřim · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Bedrichov · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Velká Bíteš · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Pelhřimov · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-06T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Ždírec nad Doubravou · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · Tatran Bohunice 3-3 Velké Meziříčí (4. liga - Divizie D)
- 2026-06-05T15:30:00.000Z · Tatran Bohunice 1-2 Velké Meziříčí (4. liga - Divizie D)
- 2025-11-01T09:15:00.000Z · Tatran Bohunice 1-0 Velké Meziříčí (4. liga - Divizie D)
- 2025-07-25T15:30:00.000Z · Tatran Bohunice 4-2 Velké Meziříčí (Cup)
- 2025-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · Tatran Bohunice 1-4 Velké Meziříčí (4. liga - Divizie D)
- 2024-10-12T08:15:00.000Z · Tatran Bohunice 6-2 Velké Meziříčí (4. liga - Divizie D)
- 2024-07-26T15:30:00.000Z · Tatran Bohunice 2-0 Velké Meziříčí (Cup)
4. liga - Divizie D table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kuřim | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 34 | 25 |
| 2 | Sparta Brno | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 25 |
| 3 | Tatran Bohunice | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 24 |
| 4 | Velká Bíteš | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 24 |
| 5 | Havlíčkův Brod | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 20 |
| 6 | FS Třebíč | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 20 |
| 7 | Znojmo | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 18 |
| 8 | Sokol Tasovice | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 9 | Pelhřimov | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
| 10 | Bystrc Kníničky | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 11 | Humpolec | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 | Ždírec nad Doubravou | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 13 | Chotebor | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -11 | 10 |
| 14 | Velké Meziříčí | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -14 | 10 |
| 15 | Žďár nad Sázavou | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 9 |
| 16 | Bedrichov | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | -41 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tatran Bohunice win, at 64.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.